How Top 1% AI-Native Organizations Actually Make Money | Harvard Business School, Rem Koning
Rembrand M. Koning, Associate Professor at Harvard Business School, explains how AI is reshaping the playing field for entrepreneurs around the world.00:00 I...
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Intro
- 00:00I wrote this paper 3 years ago looking
- 00:02at whether chat GPT delivered over
- 00:05WhatsApp could help small business
- 00:06entrepreneurs in Kenya for entrepreneurs
- 00:08who before our study were struggling.
- 00:10They had lower baseline profits and
- 00:13revenues. They saw a 10% decline in
- 00:15their profits and revenues from talking
- 00:17to the AI. Conversely, when we look at
- 00:18the people who were performing really
- 00:20well, the revenues and profits were
- 00:21above the median before our experiment.
- 00:23We find that they actually did better.
- 00:25How it might look different now? I think
- 00:27if we took GPT52 claudis and we put it
- 00:30behind WhatsApp, we get exactly the same
- 00:32results. Why would we get the same
- 00:33results if we got these better models? I
- 00:35think there's a really interesting thing
- 00:36when we look at the history of business.
- 00:38One way that you could get an edge was
- 00:39better at allocating stuff. The classic
- 00:42one is like allocating capital. Warren
- 00:44Buffett is better at allocating tapel
- 00:46and Birkshshire Haway than anyone else.
- 00:47Other companies are really good at
- 00:48allocating talent. I think we're in a
- 00:50world where increasingly what matters is
- 00:52your ability to allocate intelligence.
- 00:54If you can work that out better than
- 00:55other people, I think you've got an edge
- 00:56in the market.
- 00:59Hi, my name is Rem Coning. I'm a
- 01:01professor at Harvard Business School and
- 01:02I study entrepreneurship and AI. And I
- 01:04just like helping entrepreneurs do
- 01:06better. It could be a mogul in Silicon
- 01:08Valley. It could be someone selling
- 01:09coconuts in Indonesia. How do we help
- 01:11entrepreneurs bring new products to
- 01:12markets, compete better, grow their
- 01:14firms? And most recently, thinking about
- 01:15the role of AI as something that's just
- 01:17going to unlock a crazy amount of
- 01:19entrepreneurial potential.
Lesson 1: Your Organization isn't AI native yet
- 01:35how AI is changing the way we build
- 01:38firms, right? We hear a lot about AI
- 01:40native firms and I think there are big
- 01:41questions about who can build them, uh
- 01:43how we scale them, how it changes
- 01:45strategy. So the AI founder sprint is an
- 01:47initiative that came out of INSEAD. We
- 01:49got over 500 entrepreneurs from all over
- 01:51the world. A quarter from Africa, a
- 01:53quarter from Asia, a quarter from the
- 01:55Americas, and a quarter from Europe. All
- 01:57building around AI. You're seeing people
- 01:59building stuff for AI and maternal
- 02:01health in Africa. You're seeing people
- 02:03build new edte startups in uh India.
- 02:06You're seeing stuff come out of Kenya.
- 02:07You're seeing awesome startups uh coming
- 02:09out of Europe, in the United States. And
- 02:11really what we did was we tracked how
- 02:13all these founders were using AI. I'll
- 02:16give you guys a little bit of a preview
- 02:17of the results which is that when you
- 02:19teach founders to be AI native when you
- 02:22tell them to really think about where
- 02:24they can apply generative AI not just
- 02:26chat GPT and like claude but the vibe
- 02:28coding tools multimodal tools all the
- 02:31agents that people are really excited
- 02:33about now when you tell them to really
- 02:35think about where to use that in their
- 02:36firm to move it forward it helps
- 02:37entrepreneurs everywhere do better so if
- 02:39you're building in Nigeria you are able
- 02:41to get more done every week about 20%
- 02:44more you're more likely to get
- 02:45customers, you're more likely to launch
- 02:47a product, you're more likely to have
- 02:49more revenue. And what's really crazy is
- 02:51even though you're more successful,
- 02:52right, you're growing faster. What we
- 02:54see is that these same founders say that
- 02:57they want to raise less capital. So,
- 02:58their demand for raising funds drops by
- 03:00$250,000.
- 03:02We're seeing folks really reimagine the
- 03:04workflows in their firm and build custom
- 03:07AI solutions. So, maybe the bottleneck
- 03:09for you is getting customers. How can
- 03:11you build new AI systems that
- 03:12automatically build out a marketing
- 03:14strategy and a go to market plan and not
- 03:16just build the plan but then execute it?
- 03:18And so that was one of the things that
- 03:19was most exciting I think from the
- 03:20sprint was seeing how people were taking
- 03:22whatever the bottleneck for their firm
- 03:24was it could be marketing maybe it was
- 03:26product development and they were using
- 03:27the off-the-shelf tools but then
- 03:29building basically their own agents if
- 03:31you will right so instead of headcount
- 03:32suddenly we're scaling just with on
- 03:34demand compute and that completely
- 03:36changes the economics of a business and
- 03:38what's possible particularly for
- 03:39founders outside of Silicon Valley I
- 03:42think a great example of it gamma
- 03:48I think the first thing that's really
- 03:49important when you're thinking about AI
- 03:50native is to understand that the value
- 03:52comes from two places. One is the
- 03:55process. You use AI in your coding. You
- 03:57use AI to do customer support tickets.
- 03:58And I think that's what we're all really
- 04:00familiar with, which is that we're sort
- 04:01of using AI to make our work go faster
- 04:03or make our work better. And that gives
- 04:05Gamma an edge. It helps. But really the
- 04:07key to Gamma is the way they've embedded
- 04:09AI into their product. And I think the
- 04:11key for AI native is that you're not
- 04:13just using it to do the work. you're
- 04:15embedding it in the product so that the
- 04:17AI can directly do the work with the
- 04:19customer. You want to take you as the
- 04:22human out of the loop. I love humans.
- 04:24We're amazing. It's great being on this
- 04:26uh call. It's great talking to people. I
- 04:28love sharing stories. But the problem
- 04:29with humans is we don't scale
- 04:31particularly well. And so if you were
- 04:33trying to make Gamma pregenerative AI,
- 04:35they'd probably have to employ, I don't
- 04:36know, tens of thousands, hundreds of
- 04:38thousands of graphic designers. The
- 04:39economics of the company would collapse.
- 04:41but instead by putting AI into the
- 04:44product, what Gamma is able to do is
- 04:47scale with compute rather than
- 04:49headcount. And I think it's a really
- 04:50exciting thing that if you're trying to
- 04:52be an AI native founder, that's what you
- 04:54need to find. Where are those places you
- 04:55can create loops where the AI is working
- 04:57with a user or another AI or something
- 04:59on the website where your team doesn't
- 05:00even need to be involved? That's the key
- 05:02to building AI native organizations.
Allocate Intelligence
- 05:05Allocating intelligence. I think there's
- 05:07a really interesting thing when we look
- 05:08at the history of business. one way that
- 05:10you could get an edge was better at
- 05:12allocating stuff. The classic one is
- 05:14like allocating capital. So you have uh
- 05:16Warren Buffett is better at allocating
- 05:18capital and Birkshshire Hathaway than
- 05:20anyone else. He knew where to put his
- 05:22money and that made amazing amazing
- 05:24returns. Other companies are really good
- 05:25at allocating talent. So if you look at
- 05:27a company like McKenzie, big consulting
- 05:29company, they're really good at working
- 05:30out who should become partners, who
- 05:32should they hire at the base of the
- 05:33pyramid, matching that talent with the
- 05:35right clients, what they're really good
- 05:36at. I think we're in a world where
- 05:38increasingly what matters is your
- 05:40ability to allocate intelligence. And
- 05:41what that means is you need to allocate
- 05:43what is done by different models. What
- 05:45are you going to have Claude do? What
- 05:46are you going to have Lovable do? What
- 05:48are you going to have Grock or Deepseek
- 05:50do? Right? Thinking about how you blend,
- 05:52how you orchestrate, how you allocate
- 05:54your product to these different sorts of
- 05:55intelligences is just incredibly
- 05:58important. But I think this is the the
- 06:00key, which is that you also need to work
- 06:01out how to allocate what's being done by
- 06:03the AI and what's being done by humans
- 06:06because at the end of the day, we still
- 06:08have some edge over some of these
- 06:09models. And even if they're better or
- 06:11faster at thinking, often we think
- 06:13differently. And when you're thinking
- 06:15about strategy and you're thinking about
- 06:16how to gain an edge in the market, it's
- 06:18not about necessarily doing something
- 06:19better. It's about doing something
- 06:21different. Doing something in a way
- 06:22nobody else can. And so if you can work
- 06:24out how you bring your human
- 06:26intelligence and you allocate jobs in
- 06:28the company to humans and the places
- 06:30where they can add value over and above
- 06:32the models or do things differently than
- 06:33the models can and then you work out how
- 06:35to blend those together. I think that's
- 06:37a place where we're going to see a
- 06:38source of advantage moving forward and
- 06:39it's a really exciting time to play cuz
- 06:41I think all of us are struggling how to
- 06:43allocate our own intelligence. like what
- 06:44should I have TGPT do and what should I
- 06:46do is a thing I know I struggle with
- 06:48every day but increasingly this is going
- 06:50to be a question at the strategic level
- 06:51for firms like what should you as an
- 06:53entrepreneur do right and what should
- 06:55you give to an AI and which AI should
- 06:57you give it to if you can work that out
- 06:58better than other people I think you've
- 07:00got an edge in the market
- 07:03is AI an equalizer an amplifier I'm
Lesson 2: Equalizer or Amplifier? - Why some thrive while others fall behind
- 07:06going to say the standard professor
- 07:08answer which is it depends or maybe it's
- 07:10both um but let's get a little bit
- 07:12deeper we all now can code with lovable
- 07:14We can all build amazing decks with
- 07:15Gamma. All of us can use chat GPT and
- 07:17claude to get rid of typos and have a
- 07:19copy editor in our pocket. Wow, it is an
- 07:21equalizer, right? It is amazing. It
- 07:23moves everybody up, right? We can all do
- 07:26so much more. But here's the problem,
- 07:28right? I think that's for the existing
- 07:29work that we do. Whether you're applying
- 07:31AI over an existing task that you have
- 07:33or you're building a new sort of
- 07:35business, when you're building a new
- 07:36sort of business, a new sort of product,
- 07:38when you're thinking about how AI is
- 07:39going to change your firm, be it a small
- 07:41business or a tech startup, the returns
- 07:43to thinking about how AI can do this are
- 07:45going to be greatest for those who have
- 07:46the ability to do that. And those are
- 07:47going to be people who are already
- 07:48pretty good. Those are going to be
- 07:49people who've developed the judgment.
- 07:51Maybe they started a company before.
- 07:52They probably have a stronger technical
- 07:54background. Those are the people going
- 07:55to be able to imagine the really big
- 07:57wins and get those huge returns. They're
- 07:59going to see their judgment, their
- 08:00agency amplified.
- 08:02I wrote this paper 3 years ago whether
- 08:05chat GPT delivered over WhatsApp could
- 08:08help small business entrepreneurs in
- 08:09Kenya improve their business's
- 08:11performance. And what we found was
- 08:12really surprising, which was that four
- 08:15entrepreneurs who before our study were
- 08:17struggling, they had lower baseline
- 08:19profits and revenues, they saw a 10%
- 08:22decline in their profits and revenues
- 08:24from talking to the AI. It would have
- 08:26been better had we never given them the
- 08:27AI. And what we find is that the reason
- 08:29for them is that they ask the AI a lot
- 08:31of questions. They use it, they interact
- 08:33with it, but they get a lot of advice
- 08:35from the AI and they don't know how to
- 08:36pick the good advice from the bad
- 08:38advice. They don't have the judgment to
- 08:40separate what's good from bad, which
- 08:41might explain why they were low
- 08:42performing in the first place.
- 08:44Conversely, when we look at the people
- 08:45who are performing really well, their uh
- 08:47revenues and profits were above the
- 08:48median before our experiment, the better
- 08:50entrepreneurs, we find that they
- 08:52actually did better. And when we look at
- 08:53the chat logs, the reason we see is that
- 08:55they're asking kind of the same sorts of
- 08:57questions as the low performers, but
- 08:58they're then following up and following
- 09:00the advice that isn't the bad advice,
- 09:02it's the good advice. Unless you've
- 09:04developed the judgment, the mental
- 09:05models to actually know where to apply
- 09:07it, it can lead you down a road of slop.
- 09:10And that slop can actually lead you to
- 09:12make less money. And it's really
- 09:13interesting as we've been working on
- 09:15this paper, it's now almost 3 years old,
- 09:17how it might look different now than
- 09:19back then. I think if we took Claude
- 09:21Opus and we put it behind WhatsApp, we
- 09:23get exactly the same results. The issue
- 09:25is you still have the same problem,
- 09:26which is that the entrepreneur asks a
- 09:28question and the AI gives them four or
- 09:30five plausible things to do and you need
- 09:32to know which one's actually right for
- 09:34you. So that's the first thing. The
- 09:35second thing is I think if we were doing
- 09:37the study now, we probably wouldn't do
- 09:39it through a chatbot. I think a big
- 09:40mistake you're seeing entrepreneurs make
- 09:42is that we're still stuck in the chatbot
- 09:44world. Chad GPT launched, it was huge.
- 09:46It changed the way we thought about
- 09:47artificial intelligence, about how we
- 09:49use our computers. And it changed us and
- 09:51sort of locked us into this idea that
- 09:53there was a a chatbot for everything.
- 09:55We'll have a chatbot for Shopify. We'll
- 09:57have a chatbot for these entrepreneurs.
- 09:58Harvard Business School has internal
- 10:00chat bots. We'll just build chat bots
- 10:01everywhere. And it turns out we don't
- 10:04need more chatbots. So imagine you go to
- 10:06a chatbot and it says, "Oh, you need to
- 10:07update your website so you can get more
- 10:09sales." If I'm a Kenyan entrepreneur and
- 10:10I don't know how to code, how am I
- 10:12updating my website? So I think if I was
- 10:14doing this study today, the thing that
- 10:15would be really exciting is giving more
- 10:17agentic AI, right, to the entrepreneurs
- 10:20today. Could you give them the tools to
- 10:22build better websites or launch better
- 10:23marketing campaigns? A lot of these
- 10:25entrepreneurs, they're struggling. They
- 10:27don't have extra money. They don't have
- 10:28extra staff. They don't have extra
- 10:30people to do something for them. Could
- 10:31you build them virtual employees that
- 10:34help them run their business and expand
- 10:36the things that they're good at and get
- 10:38more done during the day? these are
- 10:39people who are working hard and often
- 10:41the constraint is just time. They don't
- 10:43have the time to do it. Could you use AI
- 10:45to help them do more in the time that
- 10:46they have? Um, so that's something we're
- 10:48exploring in some current work right
- 10:49now, which I'm really excited about. And
- 10:51I think the more we get in the mindset
- 10:53of it's not going to be we're going to
- 10:54having these conversations with the AI,
- 10:56but that we're going to be telling them
- 10:58and they're going to go take actions in
- 10:59the world on behalf of us, I think
- 11:01that's really exciting. It's going to
- 11:02open up a lot more modalities in terms
- 11:04of interfaces, right? and maybe that
- 11:06we're talking to them like how we're
- 11:07having a conversation right now. I think
- 11:09it's also a key unlock for startups all
- 11:11around the world. You're never going to
- 11:12build AI systems better than open AI or
- 11:14anthropics. Sorry, they're at the
- 11:15frontier. They've got billions of
- 11:17dollars in funding, but what you do have
- 11:19is better contextual knowledge of a
- 11:20workflow, of a situation, of how things
- 11:23work in different parts of the world.
- 11:24And I think that can give you a real
- 11:26edge because if you can get that right
- 11:27context into the AI, oh my god, what it
- 11:29can do is absolutely amazing. And I
- 11:31think you're seeing no better example of
- 11:32this right now than with skills in cloud
- 11:34code, right? So people are making these
- 11:36skills. What are these skills? They're
- 11:38kind of context. They're like little
- 11:39snippets of how to do a particular task
- 11:41where you've told the AI how to do it.
- 11:43You've given it the context for how to
- 11:44think about it. And then we can share
- 11:46these skills with everybody else in the
- 11:47world. And it's just wild to see how
- 11:50effective this is at making the models
- 11:52better.
- 11:56I think more people will be
Lesson 3: The Next Trillion Dollar Businesses - The playing field is shifting
- 11:57entrepreneurs, right? more people are
- 11:59going to go out and build their own
- 12:00businesses and I think more people in
- 12:02companies are going to behave like
- 12:04entrepreneurs partly because we can all
- 12:06build now right and I think that's one
- 12:07of the things that's always attracted me
- 12:09to entrepreneurs whether you're building
- 12:10a car wash or building a a software
- 12:11company it's like you have to create
- 12:13something from nothing I think
- 12:14increasingly all of us are going to do
- 12:16it so the world is going to look a lot
- 12:17more entrepreneurial and then you look
- 12:18at developing markets and I think
- 12:20there's a opportunity for them to
- 12:22leapfrog like they've done with fintech
- 12:24right if you go to India India's payment
- 12:26infrastructure uh this thing called the
- 12:27UPI is light years ahead of the United
- 12:30States. You can pay with everything on
- 12:31your phone. It's unlocked billions of
- 12:33dollars in value, maybe even more. Um
- 12:36there's been a huge number of startups
- 12:37around it. They have these amazing
- 12:39financial g gateways. I think there's an
- 12:41opportunity with AI around this and sort
- 12:42of knowledge work around the world. But
- 12:44I think to do that, we need to make sure
- 12:45the AI systems have context from
- 12:47emerging markets. Do they know enough
- 12:49about the Kenyan entrepreneurs to guide
- 12:50them? I think thinking about what are
- 12:52the big knowledge problems in these
- 12:54places, particularly education, I think
- 12:56AI could have a profound effect there.
- 12:58I'm really excited to see more of the
- 13:00application layer come to emerging
- 13:03markets and I think there's reason to be
- 13:05optimistic, right? We've all familiar
- 13:06with the inference cost curves, right?
- 13:08The cost of, you know, calling a GPT4
- 13:10quality model just keeps going down
- 13:12exponentially, you know, to a year from
- 13:14now, two years from now, it's going to
- 13:16be basically free. when things become
- 13:17basically free, I think it opens up a
- 13:20lot of opportunity to work in markets
- 13:22where people just have less money to
- 13:24spend. I think to get like really
- 13:25concrete on the business side, I think
- 13:28it can give people labor that they
- 13:29couldn't hire otherwise. There's often a
- 13:31lack of experts. Like you just can't
- 13:33find someone to help you with marketing.
- 13:34They're not there. They didn't get that
- 13:35college training. If I can hire a
- 13:37virtual agent who's as good as a
- 13:38marketer in New York or Silicon Valley
- 13:40and I'm in Nairobi, holy moly, is that
- 13:43amazing. I think that'd be a really
- 13:44concrete one. help them do their
- 13:46marketing, help them export more, help
- 13:48them skill their workforce potentially.
- 13:50When we sort of step back, then there's
- 13:52even a bigger question. How is AI going
- 13:53to transform the economy? And the flip
- 13:55side of more entrepreneurship is that I
- 13:57think we're going to see a proliferation
- 13:59of software tackling problems that we
- 14:01never even imagined it could tackle.
- 14:02Some of these are going to be really
- 14:03deep, like AlphaFold. That's going to be
- 14:05awesome. Some of these though are going
- 14:07to be much more mundane. So, I'm in
- 14:10Thailand and there isn't a CRM for my
- 14:12restaurant business. Well, now
- 14:14somebody's going to take Lovable or
- 14:16Codeex or whatever it is and they're
- 14:18going to make the world's best CRM for
- 14:20Thai restaurant owners and that's going
- 14:22to solve this person's problem and help
- 14:24that business grow. And I think there's
- 14:25probably millions if not billions of
- 14:27other problems that software could start
- 14:30to solve. And I'm really excited about
- 14:32that because software is awesome.
- 14:34Marginal costs are low. It's incredibly
- 14:36scalable. It can turn knowledge into
- 14:38something that can help millions if not
- 14:40billions of people. And so I think what
- 14:42we're going to see is a world that looks
- 14:43more like the software economy. I think
- 14:45there's a downside to that. If we look
- 14:47at the past 20, 30, 40 years, software
- 14:50has also led to potentially a
- 14:51concentration in wealth. We have these
- 14:53sort of, you know, mega billionaires at
- 14:55the top who have these marketplace
- 14:57platform and network effects businesses
- 14:59like Facebook that really h have
- 15:01controlled a lot of the digital
- 15:02ecosystem. And so I think there's a big
- 15:04question on the policy side of how we
- 15:06prevent that from happening again. I
- 15:07think one thing that's really exciting
- 15:08about vibe coding and how it might
- 15:10change the economy is that I don't think
- 15:12we're in a world of network effects. I
- 15:14think we're in a world of small like
- 15:16kind of SAS applications. I think we're
- 15:18in a world of uh bootstrapping
- 15:20businesses that don't need that VC
- 15:22investment. And so I am a little bit
- 15:23hopeful that this might be something
- 15:25that's going to spread prosperity more
- 15:26broadly. Though I do think we need to
- 15:28think about uh what it might do to the
- 15:30concentration of wealth if more of the
- 15:32world starts looking like software and
- 15:33tech.
- 15:35The most dangerous assumption they make
- 15:38is that by building with AI, they have
- 15:40made something people want. And that is
- 15:42just not true. Just like traditional
- 15:43software, you can build with AI and
- 15:45nobody can want it. I'm seeing this
- 15:47basically loop where people get stuck
- 15:49cuz the AI tools are so fun. So you're
- 15:51like, Claude, make me something. Codeex,
- 15:52make me something. And then you're like,
- 15:54let's add this other feature. And then
- 15:55like, let's do another one. And a month
- 15:56goes by and you've built the most
- 15:58beautiful piece of software. It's crazy
- 16:00overengineered. And then you launch and
- 16:01nobody wants it. And so I think some of
- 16:03the traditional stuff around building
- 16:05software still holds. Get it in front of
- 16:07users, have users play with it, see what
- 16:09they want. I think a correlary of that
- 16:11is a little bit of AI goes a long way.
- 16:14Going back to the example of Gamma,
- 16:16really the core of their AI at the
- 16:18beginning was let's just have people
- 16:19write a couple of sentences and then
- 16:21we'll generate a deck. Everything else
- 16:22was traditional software. That one
- 16:24unlock, oh my gosh, led to an amazing
- 16:27business. Can you find that one place in
- 16:29someone's workflow where you can apply a
- 16:31little bit of AI, just a drop or two,
- 16:33and that unlocks how they can do
- 16:35something, changes a problem that was
- 16:37really hard for them, that's what you
- 16:39really want to find. So, I think finding
- 16:40the smallest point where you can use
- 16:42these AI systems is really valuable.
- 16:44Somehow, it's going to give them an
- 16:46insight without them having the earned
- 16:48insight, right? I think it's more
- 16:50important than ever for founders to have
- 16:51a real earned insight, to have the
- 16:53judgment, to have the taste, to know how
- 16:56and where to apply these tools. I think
- 16:58that's the thing you need to spend your
- 16:59time on, not thinking about how do you
- 17:01get access to the next foundation model,
- 17:02whatever it is. Use last generation's
- 17:05model. It's probably fine for the
- 17:06purposes of what you're building. What
- 17:08matters is can you figure out where and
- 17:10how to apply it? And that's a different
- 17:11skill set than necessarily just cranking
- 17:13through the AI engineering.
- 17:15There are two things that are changing.
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- 17:17how we're learning is changing and those
- 17:19who are really going to accelerate are
- 17:21going to be those who just realize you
- 17:23can be learning way more than you were
- 17:25before and you just need to unlock that.
- 17:27My name is Drew Bent. I lead education
- 17:29at Anthropic. One of the things that I
- 17:31think holds us all back is we give AI
- 17:34tools pretty simple problems when we
- 17:36could be giving them much more complex
- 17:38problems. We are not elevating our
- 17:41ambition with what we can do with these
- 17:43AI tools. As the AI tools get smarter,
- 17:46where could I push you further? Where
- 17:47could you have pushed me further? And
- 17:49eventually, if we're looking ahead,
- 17:51there will be in some cases, I think,
- 17:53this inversion of control where actually
- 17:55the AI model is doing some of the
- 17:57highest level strategic thinking and
- 17:59then delegating to you, the human for
- 18:01the areas that require human taste,
- 18:04human agency.